Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Canaries Voting in the Coal Mine

Some voters have already gone to the polls through early and absentee voting, amounting to some 9% of registered voters in a recent ABC poll.  Although that does sound high to me, this is not a normal year.  The results are encouraging.

While the 2004 election is locked in a virtual dead heat, for nearly one in 10 likely voters it’s all over but the counting: They’ve already cast their ballots.

Nine percent of “likely” voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they’ve voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that’s jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry.

There is no way to know, of course, if this result is statistically significant - it is far too early to tell.  However, coupled with the historically reliable Weekly Reader poll of schoolchildren which has correctly predicted every president since 1956 and recently gave Bush the nod, it looks good for Bush.  Moreover, it underscores that Kerry has a no margin for error, and indeed, must hope that there is some margin at all.  His latest carping attacks have collapsed and his talking points appear to have failed to convince the electorate. All in all, I suspect Joe Lockhart and Mary Beth Cahill would rather be playing the other hand.

(BTW, it should be known that I myself participated in a Weekly Reader vote back in 1976.  My school voted for Ford, as it happens, although I myself voted for Carter.  I was young, people, and knew not what I did.)

Posted by Matt on 10/26 at 11:13 PM
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