Tuesday, July 27, 2004

Clinton and Clinton Support John and Johnner

The Clintons both spoke at the DNC yesterday, the first day, and the only one it seems in which they will appear.  They followed Jimmy Carter and Al Gore.  I missed Gore, but it seems he was somewhat toned down from his trip to the fever swamps a few weeks back.  Carter, on the other hand, spoke as if he had been the toughest president on Islamofascism we’d ever had and by the way, he won the Cold War.  Poor old codger is awfully confused. I also noted that Walter Mondale was on the floor, but someone apparently forgot to get him up there and out of the way early too. Or maybe it would be too embarrassing to have the only politician to ever lose every single state speaking.

The Clintons were very supportive of Kerry, lining up behind him.  Neither one of them mentioned Bush by name. Hillary’s speech was shorter, since she was theoretically only introducing her husband, and it was on point.  She gave a strong endorsement to Kerry:

We need John Kerry. John Kerry is a serious man, for a serious job. So let’s work our hearts out and send him to the White House in 2004. And I’m optimistic we will because I know a great leader when I see one. And so does America.

Bill gave the better speech of course, and one could see the delegates on the floor firing up - the old days of the 90s were back.  I understand that - I miss Reagan the way they miss Clinton.  And the man delivered.  He carried them on waves of oratory and spoke to their fears in terms that made them feel strong.  He diverted them from their hatred of Bush to the way they perceive his policies and beliefs. To a conservative, the speech was filled with ad hominem attacks, projections, and liberal shibboleths. But to the crowd on the floor, it was red meat. There’s still an ‘aw shucks’ quality to the man, and, like Reagan, he knows how to employ self-deprecating humor to great effect. He also gave them a big campaign soundbite:

Strength and wisdom are not conflicting values—they go hand in hand

He gave them rhetorical flourish with a Ciceronian tricolon crescendo of John Kerry saying “send me!” They’ll be using that one in commercials for sure.  He gave them another with “a more perfect Union.” Mostly I think, he gave them what he has always given them - hope. A powerful moment, one that I doubt that Basset Hound Kerry will be able to exploit for long.

So what are the Clintons up to?  They don’t really want John Kerry to win in November. Indeed, a Kerry/Edwards victory would spell the end of the Clinton dominance of the Democratic party. A sitting president is basically the automatic head of his party, and it’s hard to imagine that Kerry would keep Clinton crony Terry McAuliffe as head of the DNC.  Patronage in the party would flow from Kerry, and the Clintons would be sidelined.  Kerry has been in public life for more than two decades: the gravy train will be long, and his people are not their people.

The next go-around is a tough one too.  Supposing they win and President Kerry and Vice President Edwards are sworn in in January.  Looking ahead to 2008, one sees Kerry running for reelection and not likely to be vulnerable to an intra-party challenge.  Now we’re off to 2012, and whether Kerry wins or loses in 2008, Veep Edwards will have all the momentum going in.  Not much room for Hillary who will be a touch long in the tooth in 2016 or 2020 - assuming, that is, that anybody remembers who she is that far out. If they lose to Bush this year, then Kerry is history and Edwards, while giving it a shot next time will likely be easily shoved aside in the primaries by Hillary. She knows 2008 is her year.  There will be no incumbent as Bush will be under the 22nd Amendment at that point.  Cheney will not be running.  The field will be wide open, and indeed, at this juncture, it’s hard to imagine who the Republicans will be nominating.  Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton will be a very real possibility. But for that to happen, Kerry needs to lose. But the Clintons still had to support Kerry because the madding crowd will have it no other way.

I believe the strong show of support from Kerry on the part of the Clintons flows not from party solidarity, and real enthusiasm for Kerry, or even a Clinton desire to see the back of Bush.  Rather, it flows from a cold, shrewd, calculated Realpolitik.  The Clintons believe Bush will win, and not a by a close margin, but by a substantial one.  They see Kerry vs. Bush as a rerun of Dukakis vs. Bush. Which means that they can afford to support Kerry loudly and publicly at the convention.  I very much doubt that they will be stumping hard for him through election day, but they’ll play their balanced, even nuanced part.

I could be wrong about this, of course, and the Clintons were both being genuine and honest with the American people last night.  And Hillary Clinton doesn’t want to be president.

Posted by Matt on 07/27 at 10:55 AM
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