Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Cracks Appear

It’s going to be a tough month, and I say that with sadness.  The news this morning is that a rocket attack in Mosul killed more than 20 US troops, and just like in the runup to our own election, it will only get worse as we approach the Iraqi election. Some have suggested this is a reason to postpone, but I strongly disagree with that position - that’s the Spanish Gambit and we should have no truck with rewarding terrorists. Yet at the same time we must recognize the threat. The savages have suffered three defeats recently: the reelection of John Howard, the reelection of George Bush, and the election of Mohammed Karzai. They fervently wish to avoid a fourth defeat next month.  Indeed, the election itself will be a colossal defeat no matter who the victor.

There is a glimmer of good news in this impending violence however, as the Strategy Page observes:

Zarqawi wants a religious dictatorship in Iraq, and believes that if he sets off bombs in Shia areas, he can trigger retaliation from Shia and cause a civil war in Iraq. While nearly all the current violence in Iraq is committed by Sunni Arabs, it’s only a minority of the Sunni Arab community. Zarqawi knows that unless he can get more people fighting (either the Americans, the government or just other Iraqis), then the new democratic government might succeed. This would be a major defeat for al Qaeda. However, Zarqawi’s tactics are not popular inside al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden apparently does not approve, as bin Ladens latest taped message made no mention of Zarqawis operations (he encouraged attacks on oil facilities instead, something Zarqawi is not keen on.) Bin Laden believes that it’s all about money, and that if you destroy the oil income, the current Arab governments will fall, and Islamic dictatorships can take over.

This is a huge difference, and one we must hope is real. I find myself agreeing with Osama’s strategy outside of Iraq and Zarqawi’s within, but that is neither here nor there. Long-term the deck is heavily stacked against these guys, so their specific approach matters little.  What matters a lot is that it differs, and they no longer present a unified terrorist apparat. Their resources are already stretched, and how nice a Christmas present to see them divided and (hopefully) ineffectively employed.

We must not forget in this those who died today, and those who will regretably die in the weeks to come.  Madmen do not give up easily.

Posted by Matt on 12/21 at 12:56 PM
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