Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Waiting Game

So we wait.

Other than the statutory requirement to hold the election the first Tuesday in November, first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, with less than a week to go, there seems no reason not to just get it over with.  Indeed, many people have done just that as I’ve noted below, and today Drudge has a story about absentee ballots still undelivered in Florida. Look for those to be a cause celebre for Kerry after the election (what is it about Broward County?).

But most people seem tired, and ready to have it done with. Still, we must wait until Tuesday.

No one knows what’s going to happen.  The polls are literally all over the place, and even accounting for varying methodologies, it’s pretty clear they have not the first clue what they’re talking about. By focusing on a handful of so-called ‘battleground states’ they’ve so overpolled those people that completion rates are down, and I doubt many people are even starting. The vaunted undecided - a group one wag has suggested are only in it for the attention at this point - aren’t a factor in my view. In the most important election anyone can remember (I know, I know, they’re all important) in which interest and coverage have been at a height, anyone still undecided is checked out of the process.  Indeed, there could not be a starker choice between John Kerry and George Bush, and it almost seems like the undecideds are longing for the days when it seemed there was no difference between the candidates. (I have no idea when those days were, but some people claim to remember them.)

My call: the undecideds are staying home. Not having been able to make up their minds at this late date, neither one of them will be jazzed enough to drag their cans to the polls come Tuesday. The dog that didn’t bark in this campaign is the vaunted undecideds.

Meanwhile, the rest of us must wait to see what additional shenanigans will come up. The NYT is still spinning its story about 380 tons of missing explosives as if Bush let the terrorists in Iraq (there are terrorists in Iraq - wait a minute, I thought that happened later) make off with suitcase nukes. The story is being sensationalized, but it seems that a “fake but accurate” statement is not far off.  There are still those trying to spin the CBS forgeries that way, but the difference here is that I doubt many people are paying attention to ‘surprises’ this week. The Democrats are very good launching the ‘October Surprise,’ although the record on success is mixed, and I suspect the electorate is inured to them after the Arnold fiasco last year. Dirty tricks like that just don’t seem to play as well, and indeed, haven’t worked since 1992.

Both candidates and their surrogates will continue to jet around the nation, needlessly consuming thousands of gallons of fuel until the last minute.  So they should, but this thing is over.  We all know how we’re going to vote and neither Bush calling Kerry a “complainer without a plan” or Kerry droning that Bush has done nothing about athlete’s foot will change a single vote.

So we wait.  And Tuesday cannot come soon enough.

Correction thanks to Kip Esquire

Posted by Matt on 10/27 at 10:41 AM
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